Understanding Global Marketshare

Sometimes I forget how people will just read a headline and not even think about the context. When sites talk about Apple's global marketshare, they frequently miss a basic principle: Apple is not selling to all of the markets that other PC makers are. The problem is that the researchers often include these markets in the final numbers they publish.

For example, is a $168 Microtel PC from Walmart really even in the same category as a $1299 G5 iMac? Are they going to provide even remotely the same experience? Are the owners of each machine going to buy the same types of software and peripherals? How likely is it that Windows XP won't be pirated and installed on the Microtel machine?

It's pointless to compare marketshare between these two items just because they both happen to have monitors attached. Nobody compares Nissan's marketshare to that of motorized scooter manufacturers just because they both have wheels. This is just as senseless.

When somebody looks at Apple marketshare, they're generally in one of a few categories:

1. A financial analyst wondering if the company will be profitable
2. A developer deciding if it makes sense to develop for Mac OS X
3. Hobbyist rooting for/against the platform

The problem is that none of these have anything to do with global marketshare. First, Apple isn't going out of business, so we can check that off.

As a developer, global marketshare is useless as a metric for deciding to develop for Mac OS X. What you need to know is if there are enough people on the platform that are willing to use or buy your product. If you're developing for Panther, you know there are roughly 12 million people that spent at least $130 on software or $1000 in hardware within the last year. That number is growing by about 300,000 per month.

If you're writing an $800 video effects package, the folks that paid $300 for their computer aren't your market. If you're writing a $50 email client, chances are these people aren't your market either because they're just going to stick with whatever comes with Windows.

It shouldn't be a surprise that you can sell more PCs under $500 than those above $1000. The question is whether these are the same kind of customers.

So what prompts me to discuss all of this? I'm on all sorts of mailing lists and get emails from new Mac OS X users all the time. There's been a big spike in new users to the platform in the last 18 months or so. All you have to do is go on Slashdot to see this. I feel the Garnter numbers are significantly misrepresenting the day-to-day reality of Mac OS X user base.

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