What Would a 2006 Leopard Mean to Vista?
As WWDC draws closer, it's more and more interesting to consider the vantage point that Apple finds itself at. Between the press from Boot Camp (have I mentioned how many people have asked me about Boot Camp and MacBook Pros at Starbucks?), and the new Mac ads that are practically impossible to miss, Apple is possibly on the cusp of making some big things happen.Leopard / Mac OS X 10.5 will play no small part in this equation. If August comes and Leopard proves to be as big of a leap as either Tiger or even Panther, we could see a major upset in the making.
To clarify, major upset doesn't mean 70% market share (and I'm not even sure Apple serves 70% of the market). The point is that market share isn't the big deal, at least not directly. All Apple really needs to play for is mind share. Mind share is the key to unlocking everything else: developers, profits, community support and, as a result, users.
More than perhaps any WWDC before, all eyes will be on Apple on August 7. If Apple is willing to let Boot Camp out of the bag so early, it's a good bet that Leopard will be about more than just Windows integration. Of course a big part of the interest for us programmer folk will be APIs and frameworks, but Apple is obviously aware of the need for end-user functions.
So then the question becomes if Tiger already serves much of what is promised in Vista, where will the two platforms sit relative to each other at the end of the year? It's possible that not only will Leopard ship alongside or before Vista, but that it may be several years ahead in terms of technology.
Three months to go. Start your engines.
What Would a 2006 Leopard Mean to Vista?
Posted May 11, 2006 — 11 comments below
Posted May 11, 2006 — 11 comments below
Jarl Robert K — May 11, 06 1206
Dan Price — May 11, 06 1210
The last 5 years have seen the real-world perception of the Macintosh move from mockery and dismissal, to awe and envy. I remember being asked to justify my choice of OS every day. Now, people ask me about switching to OSX :D
lookmark — May 11, 06 1211
I do think that Apple has been holding out for Vista for its first big visual/UI refresh of the OS, and will be using the technologies it introduced in Tiger, esp. Spotlight and CoreImage, in much, much deeper and pervasive ways. As you say, this is Apple's big opportunity, and their chance to siphon some of the intense media attention on Vista (which will inevitably compare Vista and OS X) toward the idea of getting a Mac instead.
I'm also hoping for much much more, actually. I think it's time for things like gestural UI and much improved speech recognition to *complement* (not replace) the familar point-and-click WIMP interface. But we'll see how much Apple is able to pull off, at least for this release.
At the very least, there will be at least one dramatic oooooooooooh feature. ; )
Scott Stevenson — May 11, 06 1213
I personally don't know how practical speech input really is considering how many times one uses a computer around other people that don't want to be bothered.
lookmark — May 11, 06 1215
Well, it all depends how it's implemented. As a complement to the "P" in WIMP, I think it could be an incredibly useful tool.... not to mention an extraordinary asset for the platform where the standard-setting Dragon Naturally Speaking doesn't exist.
But yes, in a crowded office setting, speech recognition is not going to be the UI of choice.
Jussi — May 12, 06 1217
Sad but true.
[1] estimated unscientifically, I don't have the latest figures but Apple's computer sales were flat during 2002-2004 which means loss of market share, last year they might have gained a bit.
Scott Stevenson — May 12, 06 1218
That is the essence of pessimism, yes. In that world view, there's no reason for Apple (or really anyone) to develop products which compete with Windows or Office. What a mess. Yet, Apple and others do, so there might actually be a good reason. Apple doesn't need to topple Microsoft to improve their standing significantly.
they would still have the huge, constant stream of income from their Windows and Office products
So why are they concerned about Google, or iPod? I never said Microsoft was going to go out of business. My point is that Apple could gain the psychological advantage of mindshare to move to the next phase. I don't agree with the idea that this wouldn't matter to Microsoft at all. Microsoft's business rests on their perception that they are the leading force in technology.
Apple doesn't even need to double marketshare, it just has to make significant strides in key markets. There was a time not too long ago when it looked like Windows would never penetrate the server market against Unix.
Mathieu — Jun 08, 06 1352
Interesting... now that almost all macs ship with cameras in them these days - I can imagine snapping my fingers at the computer with a cross look to make it get on with it :-)
John Joyce — Jul 23, 06 1466
Seriously, you'd get physically tired from too much of it, not to mention if it was required, it would provide serious accessibility issues.
Voice recognition? Same thing. It isn't Star Trek. Computers are simply not in our lifetimes likely to understand the fuzzy logic and vague implicit information found in real human speech. We can't even convey most of it in writing!
English in particular is a linguistic nightmare for computers. Japanese would be a much more intelligible language for computers, but even then...
based on media reports over the last few weeks, mind share is booming!!
Vista is late and anticipated to be a dog on all but the most extreme machines, so a lot of folks buying the budget PC will be disappointed at best by having few of the hyped features (eyecandy and toys) available to them.
Here in Tokyo, the macbooks are selling well. Apple has long had its largest market share in Japan, but there are scads who are waiting for Leopard and/or the PowerMac tower replacements.
Ping-boy — Sep 28, 06 1887
Scott Stevenson — Sep 28, 06 1892
Don't care.